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Prior to the tournament I wrote about the dangers of taking steep game spreads on clay. I ignored my advice, and was burned by taking Rublev -4 against De Minaur, which ended up being one of the more painful blown covers in recent memory. Thankfully, what we learned in the Rublev match paid dividends, as we took Jannik Sinner ML over Rublev as well as Sinner Live ML down a set, primarily due to Rublev’s serious struggles on serve. The Russian is currently in the midst of a serving crisis. If you ever see a player double fault twice when attempting to serve out the match, maybe consider a fade if they make it through.
But I am willing to take a shot on Tsitsipas to cover his -3.5 game spread here. My absolute favorite tennis betting angle is to take the player guaranteed to get 15-20 more free points on serve. These points add up, and oftentimes occur on the most crucial points. I couldn’t have more respect for Diego as a player and competitor, but this is a clear mismatch in terms of power and athleticism. The Greek is not afraid to finish points at the net, either, which is vital when playing a great retriever like Diego. Many of Schwartzman’s would be passing shots should be gobbled up by Stef, who just might cover the net better than anyone on tour.
I would comfortably play Tsitsipas up to -3.5 games at any number, but an alternate -4.5 game spread for solid +money is worth considering. Diego has beaten him twice before, but clay is by far the Greek’s best surface, and I expect him to be fully engaged from the first point. This is just a physical mismatch, and I expect this one to play out more like his 6-1, 6-2 beatdown over Schwartzman at Barcelona in 2018.
Schwartzman will have to summon his absolute best stuff to win this one. If Schwartzman wins the first set, or gets up an early break, I will definitely be playing Tsitsipas’s set moneyline and match moneylines.
Recommended Bet: Tsitsipas up to -3.5, Tsitsipas -4.5 for +120 or better