ndrey Rublev has never beaten De Minaur at ATP level. But they also haven’t played since 2018. It’s safe to say that Rublev has developed his game since then, and will be looking for some serious revenge from his crushing NextGen Finals defeat, where Demon was in the absolute zone all week. This might sound crazy, but the young guns take the NextGen Finals VERY seriously, and I bet that loss stung. Rublev is probably licking his chops as you read this.
Clay is the perfect surface for Rublev to get some revenge. I don’t think Demon will have enough weight of shot to keep Rublev from finding his forehand. De Minaur is fast, but Rublev’s forehand is faster.
Demon hits such a flat ball that it should sit up quite nicely for Rublev. The slow surface definitely helps the Russian in this matchup. Demon is 7-16 in his career on dirt, while Rublev is 34-23 with two titles.
I am not sure what the Aussie can do to trouble Rublev in this matchup on clay. De Minaur hits such a flat ball that is should sit up on the surface, giving Rublev time to line up his powerful strokes. Demon can rip it, but that's not his preferred style of play. I think to have any chance tomorrow De Minaur will have to venture far outside his comfort zone and go for big shots.
Irrational confidence is a real thing, and maybe De Minaur has some against Rublev, but I have no problem taking that risk and betting a decent amount on Rublev -4 games. It’s not the easiest slate of match lines, but Rublev -4 is my favorite play of the day. Recommended Bet: Rublev -4, Rublev Live ML if down a set.
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