wise man once said, “there are two types of people in this world, those who bet Novak Djokovic down a set, and those who hate money.” Throughout his historic career, Djokovic has a preposterously good 45% win percentage after losing the first set.
But this skill has only improved throughout his career, and in 2021, Djokovic won a laughable 70% of matches where he lost the first set.
Betting Djokovic pre-match is practically impossible these days, as he’ll be listed anywhere from a -4.5 to -6.5 game favorite against anyone ranked outside the world’s Top-20. The only smart way to bet the Serb is when he loses the first set. Yes, he will cover his game spread in plenty of matches, but you don’t win money betting tennis by betting players to win 6-2, 6-3. When you take large spreads like that, the coin toss, and who chooses to serve or receive, becomes way too important to consistently win those bets.
