here’s no question that Monte Carlo is the sexiest Masters 1000. From the tournament logo to the French Riviera, and my favorite tennis artwork ever, everything about the tournament exudes class.
It’s also extremely fun from a betting perspective. Don’t expect everyone to have found their best clay court footing or form, but you can typically expect them to bring maximum effort, especially in a tournament as prestigious as Monte Carlo.
Stay tuned throughout the week, as my fellow Duke Business School buddy @Jordy_tennis will be on site, ready to answer any and all questions we may have about this week’s conditions.
We know they are using Dunlop balls, which is good news, as that’s what’s been used for the majority of ATP tournaments this year. These light and maneuverable little pellets should speed things up when fresh, and as always reward big servers. I have no data to support this claim, other than his stellar play in Miami, but these balls should really help Casper Ruud, as I think they increase the margin of error on his backhand side. It’s definitely a forgiving tennis ball.
The Norwegian is certainly more difficult to bet than in previous years, and I’m not sure about his clutch rating away from 250’s, but when Casper serves first and has a clear matchup advantage, taking his -2.5 game spread each set for + money is one of my all-time favorite bets.
I know exactly how these balls respond to a gritty hardcourt, but not clay. Either way Casper should breeze to the semifinals, where Alcaraz or Djokovic likely await.
I am not the biggest fan of outright selections, nor am I the best, but with Djokovic, Ruud and Alcaraz all in the top half, it would make sense to sprinkle a little on Stefanos Tsitsipas in the bottom half, as the sociopathic Alexander Zverev cannot seem to find his peak form.
As far as first round matchups go, there are a few plays I have no problem betting a standard unit on pre-match.
Fabio Fognini -2.5 vs. Arthur Rinderknech
There’s no question Fognini is best bet live so you can gauge his effort and intensity. And these are famous last words, but if there is one venue I trust him it’s in Monte Carlo. He won here in 2019, made the quarterfinals last year, and owns a 22-11 record at the tournament. The fans love him here, and while Rinderknech can take the racket out of his opponents hands when he plays well, Fognini should dominate the baseline exchanges, and keep him off-balance with his dropper.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas -2.5 vs. Tallon Griekspoor
Life on the Pro Tour is so tough. After a historic run at Challenger level in 2021, Griekspoor is struggling with his confidence. He also might be playing a bit injured. Ranked No. 56 in the world, Griekspoor now gets direct entry into every ATP Tournament. That’s great guaranteed money, but at this level, there is no reprieve. No match where you can start slow and work your way back into it. If you aren’t playing well, you are going to lose. The Dutchman is not playing well, and has lost his last five matches. After a life-changing run of play, a plateau or regression is one of the most common occurrences on tour especially in players with no game-changing weapons. ARV is getting old, but I don't think his clay-court prowess is what Griekspoor needs right now.
ADF+Baez+Sinner+Cilic+ARV parlay +510
This is just for fun. After losing to Kamil Majchrzak convincingly in Miami, I expect Baez to get some revenge on the dirt, and don’t mind throwing him in a parlay with the rest mentioned above. I think Tsonga needs a quick indoor hardcourt to do any damage, and I think Sinner should be able to break down Borna Coric’s forehand after a few games.
Please be careful if you bet Fognini pre-match, but I always enjoy watching him compete at this tournament, and will absolutely bet him pretty hard if he loses the first set. That’s all I’ve got picks-wise for tomorrow, stay tuned for the rest of the week and thank christ we are done with Houston/Charleston/Bogota/Marrakech.
