tried to keep all my content free as long as I possibly could, but with no bi-weekly salary from Tennis Channel anymore, combined with the extreme cost of living in Los Angeles these days (a gallon of gas is well over $6), I will be offering all of my plays, matchup breakdowns, and live-bet scenarios on Patreon. The cost will average out to less than 1$ per day. If you really can’t afford it, message me on Twitter and we can work something out, I know times are tough.
I will focus primarily on ATP matches, especially at the larger events, but will also offer breakdowns for WTA and Challengers as well. There’s a lot of money to be made at Challenger level if you choose your spots wisely.
The last thing I want to do is simply list all of my plays. If you consume my content, you are probably well-versed in tennis betting and are perfectly capable of making your own decisions. If I am betting something pre-match, I will say so, but I hope my insights, intel, and analysis prove more valuable than simply listing pre-match plays. Kudos to all the handicappers doling out full cards each day, as it is not in their best interest to do so. So often plays that would be guaranteed profit with a proper hedge or cash out end up as a loss on the spreadsheet. That is not what tennis betting is about.
So here is an example of what future subscribers can expect in their inbox on a (practically) every day basis.
Monte Carlo: Tuesday, April 12.
Dan Evans vs. Benjamin Bonzi
Bonzi getting routined by Jiri Lehecka in qualifying makes me kind of like Dan Evans in this one. This line opened with Evans as a -2 favorite, but right now it’s a pick-em. I have no idea why the line moved so much... it definitely scares me, as I thought the -2 was fair. The Frenchman’s talent is undeniable, and he's finally had some success at ATP level after dominating the Challenger circuit for so long.
But at Challenger level, Bonzi racked up an incredible 73-37 record (with 6 titles) on hard court, compared to a 27-30 record on clay. Evans obviously prefers a quicker surface, but his experience at Masters level is so much greater than Bonzi’s. Qualifiers typically have an advantage since they have matches under their belt, and often start hot, but if Evans can keep his cool and weather a few storms early on I think he gets the job done. If Evans is playing fine, and loses the first set, I will definitely nibble him live around +180 or +200 for .25 or .5 units. Recommended Play: Dan Evans -112
David Goffin vs. Jiri Lehecka
Goffin is certainly a candidate for the classic weekend winner fade against the talented young Czech, and I also think Lehecka is a big-match player. But frankly, I am not familiar enough with Lehecka’s game to make a play here. If I had to pick, I would just bet the over, as Goffin is one of the easier players to break, but I really don’t know. If Lehecka was a bigger dog I would certainly take a shot, but I will be watching this one closely to get a better feel for Lehecka’s game. I bet Lehecka as a live-underdog against Laslo Djere in Marrakech, but he was broken serving at 4-5 in both sets, which doesn’t inspire confidence.
Holger Rune vs. Aslan Karatsev
Betting on both of these guys can be a traumatic experience, but I actually really like Holger Rune to cover his -2 game handicap against the slumping Russian. I would not recommend betting a significant amount either way on this match, but Rune has certainly impressed me on clay so far in his brief career. Rune moves extremely well with big time power and shotmaking ability. Predicting Karatsev’s level is difficult, but he is certainly a player who loves taking the ball on the rise and as early as possible. Without a clear advantage in the point, not much good comes from taking the ball on the rise on clay. You are subject to bad bounces and a lower margin for error than if you take a few steps back and hit with depth and net clearance. Once again, not a big play, but I do like Rune in this spot. He is coming off a challenger title on clay and he looked very solid in his two easy qualifying wins. Recommended Play: Holger Rune -2 (low stakes)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Benoit Paire
Man, the books know how to price Benoit Paire to where you can’t help but waste far too much of your valuable time wondering whether he is worth a play. The best strategy is to completely avoid all of his matches, but getting +3.5 games against Musetti is very interesting. Not only does Paire own a significant serving advantage, but Musetti’s forehand isn’t big enough to rush Paire’s extremely shitty forehand wing. I probably won’t touch this one unless I see an inspired Benoit, but if you want to play the Frenchman I completely understand. Just don’t let him ruin your day if he loses a 6-0 third set to blow up all your bets.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Dusan Lajovic
I see no reason why Lajovic +180 can’t land against Grigor. I spoke with Jimmy Arias about tennis betting on several occasions, and one of the topics discussed was Dimitrov. Having called tons of his matches, he believes that you can only bet the Bulgarian if you see firsthand he is in tremendous form. With losses to Maxime Cressy, Benoit Paire, John Millman, Stefan Kozlov and Mackenzie McDonald in the last three months, it’s safe to assume he is nowhere near his best level. After a horrendous post-pandemic return, Lajovic is steadily improving. He’s certainly had a few bad losses, but looked very solid in his straight-set win over Filip Krajinovic. I think he wins a set for sure, but that price is -155. I’ll instead take the games. By the time you read this, it appears that line will be +3, since it is being bet down quite a bit. Dimitrov matches should probably be avoided, but this one is more gut feeling than anything. If i had bigger balls I would rip the moneyline, but I don’t. Recommended play: Lajovic +3.5 games (+3 is fine)
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ilya Ivashka
Lorenzo Sonego hasn’t looked great in 2022. He’s currently on a 4-match losing streak, and Ivashka has shown solid all-surface ability. The +180 ML price on Ivashka is pretty tempting, but I am not great at predicting Sonego matches correctly. He’s definitely more comfortable on a slower surface, as players can rush him on his forehand on a quicker surface. If I had to pick, I would just take the over 21.5 game total, but I’m not too sure as I haven’t seen much Ivashka this season due to his injuries.
Ugo Humbert vs. Pedro Martinez
If you’ve watched any of my live-streams you know I have a soft spot for Ugo. It really kills me to see a player of his caliber struggle to win matches. I have no idea when he will win another, but it might not be until grass court season. At -4, this once again might boil down to who serves first, but I do think Martinez can get the cover. This early in the tournament, there’s really no reason to play such large game spreads with a full slate to choose from. If Humbert holds serve first and I can grab Martinez -2.5 or -3.5 live I certainly might. If Martinez gets down a break I will definitely play his live game spread and moneyline. Recommended Play: Look for Martinez -3.5 or better live.
Maxime Cressy vs. Laslo Djere
Maxime Cressy won his first match since January on Sunday against 17-year-old Frenchman Luca Van Assche. Luca Van played like ASS, and gifted the clay-averse serve and volleyer an easy win. The kid literally served 43% and gave Cressy a ton of errors, and I’m being serious when I say I would have played him close that day. 43% first serves is such an embarrassing number especially against a guy like Cressy, who is going to attack every second serve. I lost money on the kid, but was actually kind of impressed by Cressy’s go-for-broke strategy. He really let it fly, and that is the best version of Cressy. Laslo Djere should easily win this match, but covering a 4.5 game spread is so dependent on who serves first that it’s not a number I want to touch.
Novak Djokovic vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
In his first match since losing to Jiri Vesely in Dubai, Djokovic is a -5.5 game favorite over ADF. That’s a lot of games, and at first glance I wouldn’t mind playing that number since ADF is so much more dangerous as an underdog than a favorite. He is a nightmare to bet as a favorite, and I definitely think he will benefit from a no-pressure situation against a match-play rusty Djokovic. But at the end of the match, we’ll likely see either a 6-4,6-3 or 6-3, 6-3 scoreline. You definitely don’t make money fading Djokovic in any capacity. Obviously hammer Djokovic is he loses the first set, and definitely bet his set money lines if he is down a break at any point. I am not touching this one pre-match, but I am excited to see how an extremely fresh Djoker looks after such a long absence. Recommended Play: Djoker set ML if down a break, live ML if down a set.
Sebastian Korda vs. Carlos Alcaraz
You all know how I feel about Carlos Alcaraz, and while I am not sure he’s fighting fair with his opponents, he is the best 18-year-old athlete I’ve seen since either Rafa or Lebron James. He is quite possibly the fastest, most explosive 18-year-old in the world. I expect Korda to play extremely well tomorrow, but Alcaraz will wear him down with his relentless physicality and demoralizing shotmaking. I could be wrong, but I think Alcaraz might actually be better on a slow hardcourt like Indian Wells or Miami than clay. Either way, predicting Korda to lose by 4.5 games is bold, but will probably end up being the right play. As usual, I will wait to bet Alcaraz set ML if he finds himself down an early break, which seems to be the case recently as his racehorse blood takes a few games to start really pumping through his veins. Recommended Play: Alcaraz set ML if down break, live ML if down set, live game spread if down break/set.
